Evolution of Production–Living–Ecological Coordination in the Chaohu Lake Basin: Evidence from Coupling Coordination and Ternary–Tapio Analysis

Understanding the coordinated development of production, living, and ecological (P–L–E) functions is critical for sustainable watershed governance in rapidly transforming regions. Using the Chaohu Lake Basin, China, as a case study, this study developed a process–pattern–potential–driver framework for watershed-scale P–L–E coordination analysis from 2000 to 2020. Unlike previous studies that mainly assess coordination levels or map spatial patterns, this framework further identifies subsystem constraints, quantifies coordinated development potential, and determines key factors driving spatial differences. The results show that production and ecological functions remained weakly coordinated, indicating persistent tension between economic growth and ecological protection. In contrast, the relationships between production and living functions and between living and ecological functions improved from strong imbalance to moderate coordination. Spatially, higher coordination levels were concentrated in the southwestern basin. Decoupling analysis further reveals that production activities, especially the energy-intensive secondary industry, were the main constraint on ecological function. In addition, 88.2% of the basin showed an increasing trend in coordinated development potential. Land-use patterns, socioeconomic conditions, and eco-environmental quality were identified as direct drivers, whereas climate change mainly acted indirectly. By linking diagnostic results with spatially differentiated management needs, this study provides a basis for more targeted watershed governance.