Fitness, Protein, and Food Outlet Choice

ABSTRACT US fitness trends and rising interest in protein have underexplored economic implications. This study evaluates how consumers' fitness orientation relates to their allocation of meals across food outlets and to within‐outlet preferences for protein sources. Prior studies document higher willingness‐to‐pay and reduced price sensitivity for protein among fitness‐oriented consumers, but do not examine where these consumers source meals or which proteins they prefer. Addressing this gap is important for targeted strategies by food retailers and foodservice establishments seeking to respond to societal trends. We use prior‐day meal reporting from a large consumer survey to estimate random parameters logit models of food outlet choice. The models allow outlet choice to vary across meal occasions and for protein sources to contribute different levels of utility to a meal. Split‐sample estimation permits analysis of heterogeneity by consumers' fitness orientation, defined here as respondents who report intentionally consuming protein to aid fitness‐related goals. Fitness‐oriented consumers source fewer meals from physical retail outlets (e.g., grocery stores and supermarkets) and more from foodservice establishments (i.e., restaurants), especially at lunch and dinner, and have a 13.9 percentage point higher probability of skipping dinner than other consumers. Within outlets, fitness‐oriented consumers exhibit selective protein preferences where whole cuts and simple preparations of beef and whole cuts of chicken rank highest, while pork often provides low or negative utility. These results can inform demand forecasts and targeted product positioning across meal occasions and outlet channels.