Risk Factor Levels and the Burden of Skin Melanoma in Poland with Predictions Regarding the 2020–2030 Perspective

Background/Objectives: Melanoma is a major and growing public health concern in Poland, with a five-year survival around 60–70%. While UV radiation and genetic susceptibility are well-known risk factors, lifestyle and environmental exposures may also contribute. This study examined how selected risk factors relate to one-year melanoma prevalence across Poland’s 16 voivodeships and assessed whether these factors can support short-term prediction. Methods: Annual melanoma prevalence for 2011–2021 was obtained from the Polish National Cancer Registry, and voivodeship-level estimates of metabolic risk factors, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, smoking, high BMI, air pollution, water pollution and limited data on UV exposure were used to build a general estimating equations model. Model predictions for 2020–2021 were compared with observed data, and forecasts were generated through 2030. Results: Melanoma cases increased in every voivodeship between 2011 and 2021. Metabolic risk factors, high BMI, low physical activity and smoking were associated with higher melanoma prevalence. When other factors were considered, air pollution showed an inverse association, suggesting complex relationships that warrant further analysis. Forecasts indicated increasing prevalence in all of 16 voivodeships through 2030, although three regions showed large prediction errors for 2020–2021. A key limitation was the lack of sufficient UV exposure data. Conclusions: The findings support further evaluation of public health actions targeting the reduction of unhealthy lifestyle regarding diet, low physical activity, and smoking to help slow the projected rise in melanoma.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Clinical Medicine
Published
2026-06-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm15124673
Primary Topic
Cutaneous Melanoma Detection and Management
Type
article
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article

Risk Factor Levels and the Burden of Skin Melanoma in Poland with Predictions Regarding the 2020–2030 Perspective

Weronika Ciećko, Ewa Kaczmar, Łukasz Strzępek, Karolina Kamecka et al.
Journal of Clinical Medicine
Cutaneous Melanoma Detection and Management
article

Risk Factor Levels and the Burden of Skin Melanoma in Poland with Predictions Regarding the 2020–2030 Perspective

Weronika Ciećko, Ewa Kaczmar, Łukasz Strzępek, Karolina Kamecka, Sławomir Porada, Daria Schneider-Matyka, Tomasz Banaś, Olga Partyka, Grażyna Dykowska, Monika Urbaniak, Remigiusz Kozłowski, Ewa Bandurska, Jarosław Drobnik, Wojciech Homola, Marcin Mikos, Katarzyna Sygit, Marian Sygit, Kamila Rachubińska, Monika Pajewska, Aleksandra Czerw, Anna Maria Cybulska, Elżbieta Grochans, Piotr Pobrotyn, Paulina Wojtyła-Buciora, Dorota Waśko-Czopnik, Natalia Czerw, Tomasz Sowiński, Katarzyna Tejza, Izabela Gąska, Mateusz Curyło, Barbara Majer-Giernat
article en

Abstract

Background/Objectives: Melanoma is a major and growing public health concern in Poland, with a five-year survival around 60–70%. While UV radiation and genetic susceptibility are well-known risk factors, lifestyle and environmental exposures may also contribute. This study examined how selected risk factors relate to one-year melanoma prevalence across Poland’s 16 voivodeships and assessed whether these factors can support short-term prediction. Methods: Annual melanoma prevalence for 2011–2021 was obtained from the Polish National Cancer Registry, and voivodeship-level estimates of metabolic risk factors, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, smoking, high BMI, air pollution, water pollution and limited data on UV exposure were used to build a general estimating equations model. Model predictions for 2020–2021 were compared with observed data, and forecasts were generated through 2030. Results: Melanoma cases increased in every voivodeship between 2011 and 2021. Metabolic risk factors, high BMI, low physical activity and smoking were associated with higher melanoma prevalence. When other factors were considered, air pollution showed an inverse association, suggesting complex relationships that warrant further analysis. Forecasts indicated increasing prevalence in all of 16 voivodeships through 2030, although three regions showed large prediction errors for 2020–2021. A key limitation was the lack of sufficient UV exposure data. Conclusions: The findings support further evaluation of public health actions targeting the reduction of unhealthy lifestyle regarding diet, low physical activity, and smoking to help slow the projected rise in melanoma.

Journal of Clinical MedicineVol. 15(12)
Wrocław University of Science and Technology (PL), Poznan University of Medical Sciences (PL), Medical University of Warsaw (PL), National Health and Family Planning Commission (CN), University of Łódź (PL), Wroclaw Medical University (PL), Jan Grodek State Vocational Academy in Sanok (PL), St. Raphael's Hospital (PK), National Institute of Oncology (HU), Medical University of Lodz (PL), Wroclaw Research Centre EIT+ (Poland) (PL), Andrzej Frycz Modrzewski Krakow University (PL), Krakow Cardiovascular Research Institute (PL), Uniwersytet Kaliski im. Prezydenta Stanisława Wojciechowskiego (PL), AGH University of Krakow (PL), Gdańsk Medical University (PL), Pomeranian Medical University (PL), University of Rzeszów (PL)
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 10%
Cutaneous Melanoma Detection and Management
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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