Vulnerability of the transport system and infrastructure in the north under changing climate conditions

Ongoing global warming leads to accelerated degradation of permafrost. This creates critical risks for transport and engineering infrastructure in Arctic and subarctic regions. The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the vulnerability of structures in the North against the background of current climate change. The article summarizes long-term data on increasing air and ground temperatures in Eastern Siberia, particularly Central Yakutia, showing a trend from 0.1 to 0.7°C per decade depending on landscape conditions. Economic estimates of damage to buildings and engineering structures in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation are presented, reaching up to 5–7 trillion rubles by 2050 if the current trend persists. The paper describes a methodology for comparing data from thermometric boreholes of Lomonosov Moscow State University with the results of mathematical modeling of the thermal state of soils based on the Fourier equation. Special attention is paid to experimental studies of the strength properties of ice and frozen soils carried out in the laboratory of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University, which make it possible to predict the behavior of the foundations of engineering structures.