Nonlinear Effect of Agricultural Industry Agglomeration on Carbon Emissions and Energy Consumption: Evidence from China

In the new development stage of China’s green and low-carbon transition, agricultural industry agglomeration serves as a key catalyst for sustainable agricultural practices. Its effects on agricultural carbon reduction and energy conservation urgently need investigation. This research uses panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning 2005 to 2021 to investigate the nonlinear effects of agricultural industry agglomeration on agricultural carbon emissions and energy consumption, employing econometric models such as the two-way fixed effects model, mediation model, and moderation model. The findings indicate that (1) there’s a clear inverted U-shaped pattern linking agricultural industry agglomeration to both carbon emissions and energy consumption in agriculture; (2) agricultural scale effects and socialized services are key mechanisms; (3) marketization and environmental regulation positively moderate this relationship; and (4) the carbon reduction and energy-saving effects are more pronounced in regions with higher agricultural modernization levels, higher urbanization rates, and plain areas. This finding contributes to optimizing the path of agricultural industry agglomeration and facilitates the synergy of carbon reduction and energy conservation in such agglomeration.