Predicting Sustainable Purchase Intention for Green Prepared Dishes Using Explainable Machine Learning: Evidence from Jilin Province, China

Green prepared dishes are an emerging food-consumption format that links convenience, food safety, and sustainable consumption. In this study, “green” denotes a sustainability-oriented product profile involving food-safety assurance, resource-conscious packaging or sourcing, and waste-reduction potential, rather than formal organic certification. However, existing studies have mainly relied on linear behavioral models and have paid limited attention to nonlinear and asymmetric consumer decision mechanisms. This study integrates the stimulus–organism–response framework with explainable machine learning to predict consumers’ sustainable purchase intention toward green prepared dishes. Based on 805 valid questionnaires collected in Jilin Province, China, predictors were organized into three dimensions: environmental and health cognition, socioeconomic and infrastructural conditions, and sustainable behavioral propensity. The sample represents a regional online consumer profile in Jilin Province rather than a national probability sample. Six classifiers were trained using SMOTE–Tomek resampling and Optuna-based hyperparameter optimization. XGBoost achieved the best predictive performance, with an F1-score of 0.894, an AUC of 0.934, and an MCC of 0.702. Unlike conventional black-box machine learning, the SHAP-based interpretation translated ensemble predictions into transparent feature-level and case-level explanations. Accordingly, the model interpretations are framed as predictive associations rather than causal mechanisms. The study reveals an asymmetric decision pattern in which core behavioral willingness functions as a non-compensatory barrier, while channel convenience, delivery efficiency, and after-sales support facilitate purchase intention among consumers who already show high behavioral readiness. The findings suggest that green prepared-dish strategies should prioritize trust-based advocacy and word-of-mouth, reliable channel design, low-risk trial experiences, and collaborative food-safety governance rather than relying only on short-term traffic acquisition.