Environmental drivers of influenza A and B: causal analysis and forecasting

BACKGROUND: Influenza is a globally important acute respiratory infectious disease, with types A and B being the most prevalent in humans. Both circulate annually but differ in timing, duration, and severity of epidemics. Understanding the environmental factors that influence influenza A and B provides new insights into effective prevention and management. METHOD: ) between models with all variables and those restricted to important factors. RESULT: . CONCLUSIONS: consistently act as dominant environmental drivers, whereas temperature and humidity shape subtype-specific seasonal behaviors. By integrating causal analysis with predictive validation, our findings bridge mechanistic understanding and practical forecasting, providing a data-driven foundation for improved influenza prevention strategies.