Green and resilient value chains for agribusiness resilience under water extremes in Madhesh Province, Nepal

Purpose This study aims to examine the factors that enhance agribusiness resilience in Madhesh Province, Nepal, under the twin stresses of too-much and too little (TMTL) water, using a green, resilient and inclusive (GRI) value chain lens. Design/methodology/approach Following the Saunder’s onion model and theory of change, this study collected 144 samples from the four value chains-bamboo, mango, Mithila Arts and vegetables-in Madhesh Province, Nepal. The analysis was carried out by using both descriptive and inferential approach, including binary logistic regression. Findings The findings highlight the importance of financial recordkeeping, networking and access to government grants in strengthening agribusiness resilience against climate and market uncertainties within in GRI value chain development. However, limited access to resources, technical knowledge and investment capital constraints farmers and artisans from adopting climate-smart practices. Despite relatively high awareness of climate change impacts, gaps in technical expertise and insufficient financial support continue to impede the effective implementation of adaptive measures. The study underscores the need for integrated resilience, innovation and partnerships to address water extreme challenges and to develop market-oriented, climate-resilient value chains in Madhesh Province. Research limitations/implications This study’s scope is limited to three districts (Dhanusha, Mahottari and Saptari) within Madhesh Province, constraining generalisability to other Nepali regions with different agro-climatic conditions and socio-economic contexts. The cross-sectional survey design captures a single timepoint, preventing causal inference and longitudinal trend analysis. The sample size (144 respondents) across 4 value chains may be insufficient for value-chain-specific statistical inferences. Self-reported questionnaire data introduces potential recall and social desirability bias. Limited variables capturing institutional support mechanisms, market infrastructure quality and climate-adaptation technology adoption may not fully explain agribusiness resilience. The study lacks qualitative depth exploring farmer decision-making processes and local contextual nuances critical for comprehensive understanding. Originality/value This study offers a distinct contribution to the literature on agribusiness resilience by providing cross-sector, empirical evidence from Madhesh Province, Nepal – an under-studied but climate-vulnerable region of Nepal – on how value chain and enterprise development can mitigate water extremes.