Foresight Kermanshah metropolis competitiveness through identification of key factors: a mix method assessment MICMAC, COPRAS, and wizard scenario

Abstract Identifying urban competitiveness criteria is essential for improving the quality of future urban development, particularly in major cities of the Global South that face complex economic, institutional, and spatial challenges. This study adopts a descriptive–analytical approach to assess the competitiveness of Kermanshah metropolis. A panel of experts in economics, urban geography, and land management developed and evaluated 29 indicators to measure urban competitive potential. Experts were selected using snowball sampling and Cochran’s formula. Data were analyzed using MicMac, COPRAS, and Wizard scenario software. The structural relationships among variables were examined through the MicMac model, leading to the identification of the most influential factors affecting Kermanshah’s competitiveness. The COPRAS model was then applied to compare the competitiveness of Kermanshah with the top ten Iranian metropolises. The results ranked Tehran first ( Q = 0.15), followed by Isfahan ( Q = 0.14), while Kermanshah ranked ninth ( Q = 0.006), indicating a significant competitiveness gap. Scenario analysis revealed 21 potential future pathways, with the most probable scenario characterized by unfavorable industrial development alongside relatively stronger performance in service-sector activities. The findings provide a forward-looking framework for strategic urban planning and highlight the need for targeted policies to enhance Kermanshah’s competitive position.