What drives high grain import dependency in Somalia? Evidence from ARDL modeling (1992–2023)

Somalia faces excessive grain import dependence, which worsens its trade balance and increases vulnerability to global market volatility. The study employed ARDL model and time series data from 1992 to 2023 to examine the short-run and long-run relationships between grain import dependence and domestic cereal production, GDP, urbanization, food aid, and global food prices. The results reveal that lower levels of domestic cereal production, GDP, and global food prices are associated with increased grain import dependence in the long run, while higher levels of urbanization and food aid also contribute positively to import reliance. Short-run dynamics generally support these findings, although GDP and global food prices have statistically insignificant effects. These findings highlight the importance of enhancing food sovereignty and reducing Somalia’s exposure to external food shocks by strengthening domestic cereal production, protecting local crops from low-priced imports, and effectively managing food aid programs – particularly during harvest periods. Furthermore, managing urbanization in a way that fosters demand for locally produced grains, rather than imported staples like wheat and rice, is crucial. Although the study is constrained by limited data availability and the scope of variables included, it offers important insights into the case of Somalia. Future research could expand the analysis by incorporating political instability and climate shocks to provide a more comprehensive policy framework for reducing import dependence and promoting food sovereignty in Somalia.