Flood and waterlogging susceptibility assessment of Jashore district using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and GIS-based spatial analysis

Jashore district in southwestern Bangladesh experiences recurrent floods and waterlogging driven by heavy monsoon rainfall, inadequate drainage infrastructure, and suboptimal water resource management. These hydrological hazards threaten agricultural productivity, infrastructure integrity, and household livelihoods across the region. This study develops a spatially-explicit flood and waterlogging risk zonation map by integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with geographic information systems (GIS) and weighted overlay analysis. The hazard assessment evaluates ten primary causative factors, with AHP-based weighting revealing that the Topographic Wetness Index (21.48%) and slope (20.49%) are the dominant controls on flood susceptibility, followed by elevation (14.98%), rainfall (12.22%), and drainage density (9.06%). Weighted overlay analysis produced a comprehensive spatial risk zonation map, classifying Jashore district into five categories: very low risk (364.20 km 2 ; 5.8%), low risk (1,397.63 km 2 ; 22.2%), medium risk (273.02 km 2 ; 4.3%), high risk (683.68 km 2 ; 10.9%), and very high risk (83.68 km 2 ; 1.3%). The analysis identifies Manirampur, Avoynagar, and Keshabpur upazilas as the highest-risk zones, characterized by low-lying terrain, minimal slope gradients, and constrained drainage capacity. Conversely, elevated regions in Chowgacha and Jhikargacha upazilas demonstrate substantially reduced flood vulnerability due to favorable topographic conditions and steeper slopes that facilitate efficient surface runoff. This spatially resolved risk assessment provides policymakers and district administrators with evidence-based geospatial data for implementing targeted flood mitigation strategies, prioritizing infrastructure investments, and designing location-specific disaster risk reduction initiatives. Integration of complementary socio-economic variables including population density, settlement patterns, infrastructure distribution, and livelihood vulnerability in future research will strengthen the framework’s applicability for comprehensive disaster risk management and inclusive development planning across flood- and waterlogging-prone zones of southwestern Bangladesh.