The Milky Way’s Missing In-Situ Halo

Abstract The Milky Way’s stellar halo preserves a record of its mass assembly history, encoding accretion events in its structural properties. Among the most prominent of these features is a strong break in the halo density profile at ≈20-30 kpc, long attributed to the apocenter pile-up of stars from the Gaia-Enceladus/Sausage merger. However, whether this interpretation is consistent with state-of-the-art cosmological simulations remains unclear. In this work, we compare the Milky Way’s measured stellar halo density profile between galactocentric radii of 1–100 kpc to those of Milky Way-mass galaxies from the FIRE-2 and Auriga cosmological zoom-in simulation suites, spanning a total of 24 simulated galaxies. We find that simulated halo profiles are significantly steeper than Milky Way measurements within ≈15 kpc, and that profile breaks are rare in simulations and never as strong as the Milky Way’s. Of the three galaxies with statistically significant breaks, only one exhibits a break attributable to apocenter pile-up of an accreted merger remnant. Decomposing the simulated profiles, we find that the accreted halo profiles are broadly consistent with Milky Way measurements, while the in-situ halo dominates within ≈20 kpc and drives the discrepancy. These results raise a compelling question: where is the Milky Way’s in-situ halo? The origin of this tension may reflect systematic biases in current halo measurements, an overproduction of early spheroidal star formation in cosmological simulations, or more fundamental differences in the underlying physics (e.g., dark matter) governing the assembly and structure of the inner Galaxy.