Apple value chain analysis in Uganda with insights into imports and local production

Apple ( Malus domestica ) is a high-value crop with significant income and nutritional benefits globally. While previous studies in Uganda have demonstrated its profitability at the farm level, empirical evidence on the structure and performance of the apple value chain remains limited. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of apple production, processing, marketing, and consumption in Uganda. Primary data were collected from 902 respondents (270 farmers, 532 traders, and 100 consumers), complemented by secondary data sources. Analytical methods included descriptive statistics, profit margin analysis, and regression models (GLM and Firth’s penalized logistic regression). Results show that apple production averages 1.57 acres per farmer, with a productivity of 3.83 tons per acre. Locally produced apples account for less than 5% of market share, while imports dominate. Profit margins along the value chain reach up to 60%, particularly at the processing stage. Demand is significantly influenced by supply, customer base, product origin, type of sales, and seller characteristics. Purchase frequency is associated with education level, product type, and selling point. The study highlights substantial supply gaps and structural inefficiencies in the value chain. Strengthening local production, improving market linkages, strengthening public private partnerships (PPPs) and promoting value addition are critical for enhancing apple value chain competitiveness and maximizing import substitution.