Spatiotemporal dynamics of the capture rate of Rattus tanezumi and its implications for rodent-borne diseases in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

Rattus tanezumi (R. tanezumi) is a major amplifying host for plague and an important reservoir host for multiple zoonotic pathogens, including leptospirosis and hantavirus. Its population dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) Area of China are influenced by climate and reservoir-induced environmental changes, thereby impacting disease transmission risks. Based on rodent capture rate data collected using cage traps during night surveys in January, March, May, July, September, and November each year from 2015 to 2021, this study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of R. tanezumi and its association with key meteorological and environmental factors. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for spatiotemporal analysis and a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), we identified the current month's average temperature and relative humidity, together with 3-month-lagged precipitation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), as associated factors. The highest capture rate occurring at around 20 °C. Rat capture rate negatively correlated with both current relative humidity and lagged precipitation and a fluctuating decline with increasing lagged NDVI. This study demonstrates how climatic and environmental factors shape the spatiotemporal distribution of R. tanezumi population in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. These findings provide insights that may inform predictions of rodent‑borne disease risks and support the development of targeted surveillance and control strategies in this ecologically vulnerable region.