Shift share analysis of regional divergence in Vietnam’s coastal fishery sector and the implications for Ho Chi Minh City

The paper examines regional divergence in the growth of Vietnam’s coastal fishery sector over the period 1995–2024. Using Shift–Share Analysis (SSA), the study decomposes output growth in 28 coastal provinces and cities into three components: the national growth effect, the industry structural effect, and the local competitive effect. The results indicate that although fishery growth has occurred nationwide, there are pronounced regional differences in terms of scale, growth pace, and underlying sources of growth. Some localities have achieved relatively strong performance mainly due to favorable structural shifts and local competitive advantages, while others have experienced slower growth or remained heavily dependent on overall national trends. These differences reflect the increasingly stratified roles of coastal localities within the regional fishery value chain. In the case of Ho Chi Minh City, the findings show that fishery growth does not stem from advantages in capture fisheries or aquaculture, but rather from positive structural transformation effects associated with logistics, processing, and high value added service activities. Based on this empirical evidence, the study highlights the relevance of regional fisheries restructuring to broader sustainable development objectives. By identifying the actual position of each locality within the coastal fishery value chain, the findings provide evidence on how different development pathways may contribute to economic resilience and livelihoods (SDG 8), logistics and infrastructure development (SDG 9), and the sustainable use of marine resources (SDG 14) across Vietnam’s coastal regions.