Expressive Constraint and Monarchical Legitimacy in Eswatini

This research note examines whether a perceived climate of caution around political speech is associated with expressed regime attitudes in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), Africa’s last absolute monarchy. Using Afrobarometer Round 9, I find that higher perceived speech risk is associated with lower trust in the King, controlling for democratic satisfaction, democratic preference, education, residence and material conditions. In a secondary test, higher perceived risk is also associated with lower approval of abolishing elections and parliament so that the King decides everything, including in a three-category specification that retains neutral responses. The analysis does not observe private beliefs, private speech, or political behaviour; claims are therefore limited to expressed attitudes under perceived constraint. The pattern runs against a simple ‘perceived expressive constraint produces loyalty’ expectation and is consistent with accounts that emphasise informational control and coordination constraints rather than persuasion.