Integrated assessment of land cover dynamics and drivers of landscape transformation in Katsina Metropolis Nigeria

Integrated assessment exhibits speedy Land Cover (LC) due to urbanization, population growth, and agricultural growth, driving landscape transformation, environmental degradation, and making plans demanding situations. This study examined the dynamics, drivers, landscape transformation, and intensity of LC in Katsina Metropolis, Nigeria. Landsat 1 (ERTS-1, 1972), Landsat 4 (TM, 1987), Landsat 7 (ETM+, 2002), Landsat 9 (OLI, 2022), household questionnaire, topographical, administrative, and Google Earth maps were used in this study. The sample frame includes all elements of the target population, which encompasses all heads of households, and a total of three hundred and ninety-six (396) samples were selected using a stratified sampling method. Land consumption rate, land absorption coefficient, landscape metrics, unsupervised classification and supervised classification were performed. The percentage of built-up land grew as 2.94% in 1972 to 11.3% in 1987, with the greatest change taking place between 2002 and 2022, during which built-up areas acquired 40.52 km 2 (28.53) of other LC categories. During the study period, vegetation was the largest contributor to this growth, with a significant change of 21.03 km 2 (14.81) of vegetation lost between 2002 and 2022. The LC did not change much until 2002, when the level and extent of LC conversion rose dramatically (71.47% in 1972–1987 and 79.06 in 1987–2002). During the whole-time span, the built-up area increased over thirteen times (41,704 − 567,894 m 2 ), giving way to the growing fragmentation of the landscape as was shown by the growing NP (157–754) and PD (0.3753–4.0092), with built-up land becoming the prevailing one in 2022 (LPI = 35.73). This change has been brought by the rapid population growth (120,241–526,602), which resulted in a higher land consumption rate (LCR: 0.0034–0.0108) and the change of the trend in urban growth into the intense outward expansion and sprawl instead of inner densification (LAC = − 0.0021, 1987–2002). The socio-economic analysis revealed that the security of lives and property was the strongest factor with regard to this urban expansion (RII = 0.79), followed by the availability of site services like electricity, water and road infrastructure (RII = 0.66). These results implied a clear trajectory of urban expansion driving the transformation of vegetation, farmland, and marginal lands into built-up spaces between 1972 and 2022, which underscores the growing challenge of achieving urban sustainability.