Regional Differences in the Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Productivity in China’s Apple Industry

Against the background of global climate change and China’s dual-carbon strategic goal, agricultural carbon emission reduction and low-carbon transformation have become urgent practical issues. As an important characteristic cash crop in China, apple cultivation faces significant carbon emission pressure, and an obvious spatial imbalance exists in carbon productivity across major producing areas. Using the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and Markov-chain analysis, this study analyzes regional differences in and the dynamic distribution of carbon productivity in China’s main apple-growing provinces from 2008 to 2024. The results indicate the following: (1) Overall, carbon productivity in China’s apple industry shows an upward trend, with a “rising–declining–rising–declining” M-shaped evolution during the study period. (2) The main reason for the overall differences is variation between regions, which shows a continuous inverted V-shaped change pattern of “rising–declining–rising–declining–rising–declining–rising.” (3) High-carbon-productivity areas have a positive effect on surrounding areas, while low-productivity areas have a negative effect. Therefore, to improve carbon productivity in apple cultivation, it is essential to not only understand regional differences and their causes but also leverage the positive effects of neighboring high-carbon-productivity areas to positively influence local conditions. This will help achieve cross-regional collaborative improvement in carbon productivity in China’s main apple-producing provinces.