Neighborhood Diversity as a Buffer? Racial Change and Anti-Black Hate Crime in Los Angeles

Abstract This study examines whether neighborhood racial diversity buffers or amplifies anti-Black hate crime amid Black residential change in Los Angeles County. Prior research on defended neighborhoods and group threat focuses largely on Black-white dynamics, overlooking how multiracial contexts may reshape patterns of racialized targeting. Using geocoded anti-Black hate crime data from the Los Angeles County Commission on Human Relations (2011–2015) and census-derived measures of racial composition and change, I estimate a series of negative binomial spatial models to assess whether neighborhood diversity moderates the relationship between Black residential shifts and anti-Black hate crime. Results show that racially diverse “no majority” neighborhoods experience significantly fewer anti-Black hate crime incidents than less diverse contexts. While increased Black population change does not heighten anti-Black targeting in models assuming Black-white interaction, diversity exerts a moderating effect under alternative exposure structures, particularly those involving Black-Latino interactions. These patterns suggest that the mechanisms of racial threat and neighborhood defense vary across multiracial settings: in Los Angeles, Latino-majority minority neighborhoods appear more susceptible to anti-Black targeting during periods of demographic change, while more ethnically heterogeneous neighborhoods show consistent buffering effects. Overall, the findings extend the defended neighborhoods perspective by demonstrating that racial conflict and demographic threat are not confined to Black-white binaries but operate through broader multigroup dynamics shaped by local racial histories and neighborhood diversity.