Operationalizing extreme event attribution in data-scarce regions: why and how

Attribution of climate change has evolved in several dimensions and now provides the pinnacle of evidence for quantitatively assessing the contribution of multiple causal factors to observed changes in climate variables. This evidence is critical in informing climate policies and action. However, most attribution studies are concentrated in the Global North. While other regions are making concerted efforts to operationalize event attribution and assess the contribution of anthropogenic and other causes in observed impacts, also called impact attribution, Africa has not yet made substantial progress in producing climate change attribution information. The absence of attribution evidence generated within Africa is particularly evident, and when such studies exist, they are mostly led by institutions in the Global North. Multiple factors have contributed to this gap. Recognizing these persistent bottlenecks, this Perspective argues that operationalizing extreme event attribution for African countries is needed now more than ever. It further discusses why this effort is particularly important for Africa, from informing climate policies and actions to enhancing Africa’s role in global climate governance. Additionally, it proposes an inverted approach and strategic partnerships. The inverted approach first aims to use in-house capacity for rapid event attribution, strengthen it through strategic partnerships with institutions in the Global North, and then use the enhanced capacity to conduct rigorous operational event attribution within the continent. These adaptable and scalable suggestions aim to create reinforcing loops that strengthen extreme event attribution practice over time and maintain the highest scientific rigor while operationalizing attribution in data- and expertise-scarce regions.