The varied impacts of urbanization on ecosystem services under spatial zoning policy: a case study in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration, China

Understanding how urbanization affects ecosystem services (ES) across different spatial planning zones is essential for sustainable land management. In China, the Major Function Zone (MFZ) framework provides a unique lens to examine these interactions, yet the spatial heterogeneity of urbanization–ES dynamics under this system remains underexplored. Focusing on the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (MRYRUA), this study integrates the InVEST model, coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, and PLUS land-use simulation to assess historical trends (2000−2020) and project future trajectories (2020–2035) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP). Results show that urbanization increased steadily across all MFZs, with National Key Development Zones experiencing the highest growth. ES trends diverged: water yield and soil conservation rose, while habitat quality, carbon sequestration, and water purification declined. The CCD between urbanization and ES improved modestly (0.18–0.38), shifting from moderate to mild disorder, but remained low overall. The spatial pattern of the urbanization–ES relationship clearly reflects the hierarchy of the MFZ. Spatially, CCD was highest in National Key Development Zones and lowest in National Key Ecological Functional Zones. Future scenario projections identify SSP119 as optimal for balancing urban development with ecological protection, aligning best with long-term sustainability objectives. These findings underscore the critical role of MFZ planning in mediating urban–ecological trade–offs and provide actionable insights for aligning regional development with global sustainability goals.