From protest to piety: the cultural consolidation of PiS voters in Poland

This study investigates the evolving profile of voters supporting Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS) between 2012 ande 2023, asking: How have individual-level traits shaped electoral support for PiS across its transition between opposition and government? Using lagged instrumental variable probit models across multiple survey waves, we find that conditional on electoral participation, political trust and dissatisfaction with governance were the primary drivers of the vote in 2012, reflecting PiS's outsider status. During PiS's tenure, satisfaction with governance showed intermittent positive effects, while religiosity emerged as the most consistent predictor from 2018 onwards.