The 51st State? Exploring Canadian Attitudes Towards US Annexation and Their Determinants

Abstract This research provides the first systematic assessment of contemporary Canadian public opinion on the prospect of annexation by the United States and its correlates, a topic that has gained attention since Donald Trump’s 2024 re-election. Leveraging original survey data collected just before and after the implementation of major US trade tariffs, we find that support for annexation was very low (less than 10%). While some sociodemographic factors are associated with supporting the merging, the main drivers were political. Feeling close to the Conservative Party or the People’s Party of Canada was associated with a higher likelihood of favouring a merging. We provide a first test explaining these differences and show that more positive feelings towards Donald Trump (but not the US) explain most of these relationships and are the strongest predictors of support for annexation. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for Canadian politics.