Global air quality and human health impacts of growing aircraft emissions

Abstract Aviation is a growing source of atmospheric emissions that degrade air quality both near and far from airports, increasing human mortality. These impacts can vary significantly over time as emissions from aviation and other sectors evolve. Here, we project global aircraft emissions from the year 2019 to 2040, and use an atmospheric chemistry transport model to estimate their air quality and human health impacts. In 2019, aircraft emissions are estimated to result in 33,900 (95% confidence interval: 23,500–45,600) deaths due to fine particulate matter and 24,600 (15,500–34,200) due to ozone. These two impact metrics increase in three 2040 scenarios of aircraft emissions: by 58% and 82% (low), 119% and 148% (baseline), 169% and 205% (high). Different socioeconomic scenarios for non-aviation emissions change aircraft impacts by up to 44%. These results provide a comprehensive and up-to-date quantification of the global human health burden of aviation and its potential increase in the next two decades.