Silence or Voice? Explaining the Expressed Neutrality of Baltic Russophones Toward the Russia-Ukraine War

Abstract This article examines the expressed neutrality of Russophones in Latvia and Estonia toward Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Drawing on nationally representative survey data and four focus groups, the study employs a mixed-methods design to explore how individual dispositions, social contexts, and media perceptions shape neutrality. Logistic regression analysis shows that neutrality is strongly predicted by low interest in Ukrainian affairs, socioeconomic vulnerability, and—most decisively—reference group perceptions: respondents describing their milieu as neutral, mixed, or uncertain were dramatically more likely to adopt neutrality than those in pro-Ukraine circles. By contrast, opinion climate and perceived social isolation had weaker effects, while neutrality was reinforced by distrust of both Latvian and Russian media. Focus group data reveal neutrality as a negotiated stance, serving to manage social tensions and navigate contested information environments. The findings highlight neutrality as a socially embedded strategy rather than mere apathy or ignorance.