Predictive Analytics of Time Series for Preventive Maintenance of Urban Infrastructure: A Research Plan and Experimental Design Based on MetroPT-3

This article-style preprint presents a research plan for predictive analytics of time series in preventive maintenance of urban infrastructure. The work motivates the research gap between general predictive maintenance research and urban infrastructure needs, selects MetroPT-3 as a reproducible urban-transport predictive maintenance benchmark, and proposes an experimental protocol for comparing baseline, statistical, deep learning, Transformer-based, and hybrid time-series models under chronological validation. The preprint consolidates the current stage of a master's research project, including problem formulation, dataset strategy, preliminary data understanding, preprocessing design, model classes, evaluation metrics, limitations, and a publication plan. The planned evaluation emphasizes forecasting accuracy, anomaly detection quality, false-negative analysis, and warning lead time. The document is intended as a citable preliminary research output before the empirical model-training stage.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-06-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20721889
Primary Topic
Infrastructure Maintenance and Monitoring
Type
preprint
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preprint

Predictive Analytics of Time Series for Preventive Maintenance of Urban Infrastructure: A Research Plan and Experimental Design Based on MetroPT-3

Artem Grents
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Infrastructure Maintenance and Monitoring
preprint

Predictive Analytics of Time Series for Preventive Maintenance of Urban Infrastructure: A Research Plan and Experimental Design Based on MetroPT-3

Artem Grents
preprint en

Abstract

This article-style preprint presents a research plan for predictive analytics of time series in preventive maintenance of urban infrastructure. The work motivates the research gap between general predictive maintenance research and urban infrastructure needs, selects MetroPT-3 as a reproducible urban-transport predictive maintenance benchmark, and proposes an experimental protocol for comparing baseline, statistical, deep learning, Transformer-based, and hybrid time-series models under chronological validation. The preprint consolidates the current stage of a master's research project, including problem formulation, dataset strategy, preliminary data understanding, preprocessing design, model classes, evaluation metrics, limitations, and a publication plan. The planned evaluation emphasizes forecasting accuracy, anomaly detection quality, false-negative analysis, and warning lead time. The document is intended as a citable preliminary research output before the empirical model-training stage.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Astana Medical University (KZ)
Sustainable cities and communities
Infrastructure Maintenance and Monitoring
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