Drought projections in a high-latitude continental region of Quebec

This study evaluates historical and projected drought conditions in the Abitibi–Témiscamingue (AT) region of Quebec from 1991 to 2100 using the Standardized Precipitation Anomaly Index (SPAI) and CMIP6 precipitation data under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Bias adjusted data were obtained from Ouranos and analyzed for all five Regional County Municipalities (RCMs). Although total annual precipitation is projected to increase across all RCMs, the results show that this increase does not uniformly reduce drought risk. Clear spatial disparities persist. Northern municipalities—Abitibi, Abitibi-Ouest, and Rouyn-Noranda—consistently experience mild to moderate drought conditions compared to the southern municipalities of Vallée-de-l’Or and Témiscamingue, which exhibit less water stress. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0, mildly to moderately dry conditions persist in northern AT through 2100, with Rouyn-Noranda recording the most negative SPAI values (down to − 1.40). In contrast, southern municipalities maintain near-normal to moderately wet conditions. Notably, SSP5-8.5 does not show further drought intensification beyond SSP3-7.0 observations, suggesting possible SPAI saturation or limitations due to the exclusion of temperature-driven evapotranspiration. These findings highlight persistent northern vulnerability and the need to integrate climatic and socio-demographic factors into regional drought adaptation planning.