GIS-Based Soil Erosion Susceptibility Mapping in Serbia Using a Modernized Erosion Intensity Coefficient (Z) with Satellite Remote Sensing: A National-Scale Prediction

In this study, a soil erosion intensity map for the territory of Serbia was produced using the Modernized Erosion Intensity Coefficient (MEIC-Z), combined with remote sensing data (Sentinel-2) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was based on contemporary geospatial data on lithology, land use, and terrain slope, with a spatial resolution of 30 m. Particular emphasis was placed on modifying the φ coefficient, which significantly improved estimates of erosion intensity. The average erosion intensity at the national level is 0.239, corresponding to the weak erosion class. Multivariate analysis of geographical conditions showed that the highest values of the erosion coefficient (Z) were determined by agricultural land (r = 0.826), while the lowest values were associated with terrain slope (r = −0.805) and forest cover (r = −0.767). In addition to the national-scale assessment, spatial differentiation of the results was performed at the local (municipal) level. Municipalities were differentiated into four clusters using Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering. The advantage of the modified φ coefficient lies in the integration of land use and terrain slope, enabling a more realistic assessment of the intensity of erosion processes. Validation results demonstrated strong agreement between the modernized Z-derived erosion coefficient and the expert-defined erosion inventory, supporting the internal consistency of the model-derived erosion susceptibility patterns. This study significantly contributes to decision-making at both national and local levels by providing a scientific basis for developing strategies for sustainable forest management and soil conservation.