Beyond Extractive Dependence? Micro-, Small-, and Medium-Sized Enterprise Reorientation, Survival, and Structural Persistence in Ecuador’s Amazon Region

This study aims to assess whether micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises in Ecuador’s Amazon region show evidence of sustained reorientation toward selected non-extractive activities under persistent extractive dependence. Guided by four empirical propositions concerning sectoral reorientation, differential firm viability, temporal discontinuity and limited reallocation, and territorial heterogeneity, the study uses a longitudinal administrative panel of 769,344 firm-year observations for 2006–2021, complemented by descriptive evidence for 2022–2024. The empirical strategy combines fixed-effects models, non-parametric trend and structural break tests, cohort analysis, survival analysis, and transition matrices. The results indicate an emerging but constrained diversification pattern. New-economy firms increased their relative participation after the 2015–2016 commodity downturn and showed higher survival rates and stronger formal employment generation than extractive firms. However, intersectoral mobility remained limited, and the evidence does not support the interpretation of a completed structural transformation. Provincial heterogeneity further shows that extractive expansion continues to influence local entrepreneurial dynamics, especially in mining-frontier territories. The main limitation is that the analysis captures formally registered firms and does not directly measure informal-sector activity, productivity upgrading, or full regional structural transformation. The study contributes to debates on regional development, sustainability, and firm-level transformation by showing that non-extractive reorientation may emerge in peripheral resource-dependent regions without fully displacing extractive dependence.