Chinese Loans and Africa's Agricultural Investment: A Bayesian Multilevel Modelling Analysis

ABSTRACT Chinese lending to Africa expanded substantially after 2000, with agriculture often presented as a strategic sector in China–Africa development cooperation. This study examined whether Chinese loans to African agriculture reflected a differentiated financing strategy or formed part of a broader development finance portfolio. Using the Chinese Loans to Africa (CLA) dataset (2000–2024), the analysis combined descriptive assessment with Bayesian multilevel modelling to examine loan allocation patterns, borrower structures, regional distribution and project composition. The findings showed that agricultural loans did not differ significantly from non‐agricultural loans, with agricultural lending heavily concentrated in Southern Africa and focused largely on production‐oriented investments such as farm schemes, fisheries infrastructure, mechanisation and irrigation. Larger loans were more frequently channelled through government‐affiliated and non‐sovereign entities than national governments. Interpreted through dependency and sustainable development perspectives, the findings suggested that Chinese agricultural lending followed a project‐driven productive infrastructure logic rather than a distinct sector‐transformative financing strategy, with implications for governance coordination, transparency and agricultural transformation in Africa.