Does the digital economy impact global carbon shadow price? A study on nonlinear relationships based on the dynamic threshold model

Clarifying the nexus between digital economy development (DED) and carbon shadow price (CSP) is fundamental to reconciling environmental conservation with economic growth, as CSP serves as a core indicator in environmental economics for evaluating the trade-off between low-carbon transition and economic development. Drawing on dynamic panel data covering 60 economies, this study adheres to the core logic of environmental economics, employs nonparametric estimation methods to quantify the fluctuation patterns of CSP, and empirically examines the nonlinear relationship between DED and CSP. From the perspective of environmental economics, DED can effectively elevate CSP through multiple channels, including enhancing production efficiency, facilitating the substitution of high-carbon factors with data elements, and optimizing the industrial structure toward low-carbon development. Consistent with this theoretical mechanism, the empirical results demonstrate that DED exerts a significantly positive impact on CSP, with this facilitative effect exhibiting temporal persistence. Furthermore, from the perspective of development economics, a critical economic development (ED) threshold of $6329.65 is identified as a key boundary condition: when a country’s ED level is below this threshold, DED plays a pronounced role in elevating CSP. Against the backdrop of the digital economy providing new impetus for advances in carbon abatement technologies, it is recommended that countries tailor their development strategies to align with their distinct growth paths. This study provides valuable decision-making insights for countries worldwide to leverage the digital economy in advancing sustainable carbon reduction and transitioning toward green development.