Can desertification reversal alleviate carbon balance pressure in energy-dominated regions? Evidence from asynchronous dynamics between ecological restoration and energy-related carbon emissions

Ecological restoration in global drylands is expected to reverse land degradation and enhance vegetation-based carbon uptake, yet its interaction with expanding energy systems remains insufficiently quantified. Using the Mu Us Sandy Land as a case study, we integrated multi-source gridded datasets from 2000 to 2020 to assess desertification reversal, NPP-based ecological buffering, energy-related CO₂ emissions, and the CO₂-oriented carbon balance pressure index (CBPI). An SPEI-informed spatial Durbin model was used to account for spatial dependence and examine associations and spillover patterns among hydroclimatic variability, desertification dynamics, socioeconomic factors, and CBPI. Results show that 59.78% of the region underwent a nonlinear transition from severe to mild desertification, with widespread non-climatic restoration signals after accounting for hydroclimatic variability. However, ecological buffering and emissions became increasingly decoupled: emissions increased more than ninefold, whereas the increase in vegetation carbon uptake potential accounted for only 31% of concurrent emission growth, indicating a shift toward an emission-dominated carbon-pressure regime. Spatial econometric results indicate that higher desertification intensity was positively associated with local CBPI, while CBPI exhibited strong spatial dependence. In energy-dominated regions, the local association between desertification reversal and CBPI was weakened, whereas spillover associations with adjacent areas were amplified. Overall, desertification reversal enhanced NPP-based ecological buffering but did not keep pace with energy-related CO₂ emissions. Ecological restoration should therefore be interpreted as carbon-pressure risk regulation—reducing exposure to persistent high-CBPI states through landscape stabilization and NPP-based buffering—rather than complete carbon-balance restoration, verified carbon offsetting, or a substitute for emission-side mitigation.