Do elections matter for sectoral performance? New evidence from the Casablanca Stock Exchange

Purpose This paper examines how parliamentary elections influence sector-level stock market performance in Morocco, focusing on how electoral uncertainty affects returns across 18 industries of the Casablanca Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach The study applies an event-study methodology, an EGARCH-based specification and dynamic event-time regressions to three electoral cycles (2011, 2016 and 2021), allowing the analysis to capture abnormal return dynamics and the timing of market adjustments before and after election day. Findings Results reveal substantial cross-sector heterogeneity. Politically exposed sectors including real estate, beverages, food processing, pharmaceuticals and oil & gas show pronounced negative market reactions, cumulative abnormal returns declining by 10–22% around elections, reaching as low as −22.15% in pharmaceuticals and −14.36% in oil & gas. Conversely, some sectors experience temporary positive adjustments, cumulative gains exceeding 10–19% in specific instances, reflecting heterogeneous expectations and sectoral positioning. Structurally stable sectors including banking, telecommunications, software and mining remain insulated from electoral disturbances. Dynamic estimates indicate anticipatory pricing behavior and gradual post-event repricing, suggesting market response to expected and realized electoral information. Practical implications The findings highlight the importance for investors of incorporating sector-specific political risk into portfolio strategies during election periods and underscore the role of clear and credible economic communication in limiting uncertainty-driven market reactions. Originality/value This study provides the first comprehensive sector-level analysis of Moroccan parliamentary elections using a multi-method empirical framework, offering new evidence on how political transitions shape equity market behavior in an emerging African economy.