The continuity heuristic: Temporal extrapolation in consumer judgment

Abstract From choosing an established brand over a newcomer to deciding when to replace a product or commit to a subscription, consumers routinely make judgments about how much longer things will last. Across 24 studies ( N = 9718), this research introduces and tests the continuity heuristic , an intuitive forecasting strategy in which consumers use how long something has lasted as a basis for predicting how long it will continue. This temporal extrapolation shapes judgments across a diverse set of consumer domains, including brand heritage, product obsolescence, subscription retention, and trend forecasting. Even when quality is held constant, and age is not explicitly mentioned, past duration predicts future longevity expectations. We propose a question‐substitution account, where consumers faced with the difficult question “How long will it last?” often rely on the easier and more accessible “How long has it lasted?” This substitution explains why the effect weakens for technology products, where clear lifespan norms provide direct answers to the target question, and for expert consumers, who can draw on domain knowledge to estimate longevity without relying on past duration. This research contributes to the psychology of temporal judgment and provides marketers with a tool for predicting preference, loyalty, and perceived durability.