Assessing urban ecological sensitivity in an eastern Indian industrial urban agglomeration using DEMATEL-VWC model

Abstract Urban agglomerations in eastern India, particularly those driven by mining and industrial activities, have undergone profound ecological transformations in recent decades. The rapid and unregulated pace of industrialization and urban expansion has placed significant pressure on local ecosystems, resulting in environmental degradation and reduced ecological resilience. This study assesses the Urban Ecological Sensitivity (UES) of the Asansol Urban Agglomeration (AUA), a major industrial hub in eastern India, using an integrated methodological framework that combines the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) model with the Variable Weight Combination (VWC) approach. The DEMATEL model is employed to analyse the intricate cause-effect relationships among 14 ecological variables, while the VWC model dynamically adjusts the weights of these variables to enhance the precision of the sensitivity assessment. Findings reveal that built-up density, land surface temperature (LST), mining intensity, and industrial concentration are the dominant ecological risk factors. Spatial analysis identifies Kulti, Jamuria, Raniganj, and Burnpur as ecologically vulnerable zones, primarily due to open-cast mining, deforestation, subsidence hazards, and persistent industrial pollution—particularly around IISCO Steel Plant and the eastern industrial corridor of Jamuria. UES values were then categorized into five groups: extreme, high, moderate, low, and very low. The findings indicate that 9.82% of the AUA falls under the category of extreme, 32.79% under the category of high and critical areas are mainly in Kulti, Jamuria, Raniganj and Burnpur. Besides, the zonal statistics depict that, out of 106 wards of AUA, 14 wards are under an extremely sensitive zone during 2020.The most striking drivers are built-up density, mining intensity, and industrial concentration. The results provide a diagnostic benchmark to planners, so that ecological sensitivity can be integrated into land-use rules, conservation, and climate-resilience programs. By mapping sensitive ecological zones and uncovering the interdependencies among key environmental stressors, this research offers critical insights for evidence-based urban planning. The study advocates for the integration of ecological sensitivity analysis into policy and planning frameworks to guide sustainable development, prioritize conservation efforts, and enhance the climate resilience of rapidly industrializing urban regions like AUA.