How are planetary boundaries operationalised in strategic foresight and futures studies addressing climate change? A scoping review

This scoping review examines how the planetary boundaries framework (PB) is operationalised in strategic foresight and futures studies focusing on the global challenge of climate change, and how far these studies engage with alternative economic models such as Doughnut Economics, post-growth, or degrowth frameworks. It addresses four research questions: (1) How is PB operationalised in strategic foresight and futures studies addressing climate action? (2) How do foresight studies engaging PB incorporate alternative economic models? (3) Among foresight studies using PB, how many present normative or preferred futures that demonstrate boundary compliance, and by what assessment methods? (4) In boundary-compliant preferred futures, which socio-economic indicators are specified alongside PB or biophysical limits, and how are they justified or standardised? Following Arksey and O’Malley’s five stage framework, a Google Scholar search (16 October 2025) identified 189 sources, from which seven studies and reports met strict inclusion criteria relating to climate-relevant foresight, explicit operationalisation of PB, and availability of full text. These include four peer-reviewed articles and three high-quality grey literature reports from European policy contexts. The included work shows that PB are being translated into targets, models, and tools in selected domains such as food systems, corporate strategy, and integrative climate pathways, but methodological approaches remain heterogeneous and often incomplete. Only a small subset of studies explicitly links PB to alternative economic models, and explicit use of Doughnut Economics is still rare, though several sources converge on wellbeing-oriented, post-GDP framings of prosperity. Normative or “preferred” futures that rigorously demonstrate PB compliance are limited, and socio-economic indicators are not yet consistently standardised, though social foundations such as poverty, social exclusion, and equity frequently appear alongside environmental thresholds. The review highlights an emerging but still fragmented field and points to the need for more systematic methodologies to integrate planetary boundaries and socio-economic indicators into strategic foresight for climate action.