Conflict, Debt, and Spatial Spillovers in Africa

This study examines the conflict-debt nexus in Africa using a spatial Durbin model with a queen-based contiguity matrix across four subregions. Results show that conflicts generate significant cross-border spillovers, especially in Central, Eastern, and Southern Africa, increasing debt burdens even in stable countries. Debt is shown to be shaped by regional interdependencies rather than being territorially bounded. Military spending amplifies these spillovers, with the strongest effects in West Africa, making defense spending a fiscal stressor. The findings show that Africa is vulnerable to conflict spillovers and emphasize the need for coordinated fiscal measures, joint security responses, and strong debt management.