Unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters revealed by a six-century snow cover reconstruction
Snow cover shapes climate, ecosystems, water resources, and socio-economic activities, yet its long-term European variability remains poorly known due to short and fragmented observational records. Here, we present a continent-wide, 600-year reconstruction of monthly European snow cover extent at 2° spatial resolution, derived by combining reanalysis data through a machine learning technique. The record reveals an unprecedented seasonal reorganization at monthly scale since around 1850: December–January snow cover extent shrinks by up to 20%, while April–May snow cover extent declines by up to 30%, especially at latitudes higher than 50°N. February and March are comparatively stable. While snow cover exhibits the strongest sensitivity to rising temperatures, reduced precipitation still leaves a noticeable imprint, particularly in the Mediterranean basins and Scandinavia. These changes place recent loss of snow cover in a multi-centennial context and underline the urgent need to assess impacts on sensitive ecosystems, water resources, and socio-economic sectors. Our dataset provides a crucial baseline for adaptation planning and benchmarking climate model simulations. European snow-cover extent has undergone an unprecedented seasonal reorganization since around 1850, with monthly declines of up to 30%, according to a 600-year reconstruction combining reanalysis data and machine learning method.
Authors
- Roland Psenner (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9209-0298)
- Rafael Pimentel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6990-4874)
- Patrick Fonti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7070-3292)
- Chiara Bertolin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0684-8980)
- Claudia Notarnicola (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1968-0125)
- Christian Röhr (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0283-6584)
- Jörg Franke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-4225)
Institutions
- University of Bern (CH)
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH)
- Eurac Research (IT)
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH)
- University of Córdoba (ES)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2026-06-13
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03719-1
- Primary Topic
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00