Unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters revealed by a six-century snow cover reconstruction

Snow cover shapes climate, ecosystems, water resources, and socio-economic activities, yet its long-term European variability remains poorly known due to short and fragmented observational records. Here, we present a continent-wide, 600-year reconstruction of monthly European snow cover extent at 2° spatial resolution, derived by combining reanalysis data through a machine learning technique. The record reveals an unprecedented seasonal reorganization at monthly scale since around 1850: December–January snow cover extent shrinks by up to 20%, while April–May snow cover extent declines by up to 30%, especially at latitudes higher than 50°N. February and March are comparatively stable. While snow cover exhibits the strongest sensitivity to rising temperatures, reduced precipitation still leaves a noticeable imprint, particularly in the Mediterranean basins and Scandinavia. These changes place recent loss of snow cover in a multi-centennial context and underline the urgent need to assess impacts on sensitive ecosystems, water resources, and socio-economic sectors. Our dataset provides a crucial baseline for adaptation planning and benchmarking climate model simulations. European snow-cover extent has undergone an unprecedented seasonal reorganization since around 1850, with monthly declines of up to 30%, according to a 600-year reconstruction combining reanalysis data and machine learning method.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2026-06-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03719-1
Primary Topic
Tree-ring climate responses
Type
article
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article

Unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters revealed by a six-century snow cover reconstruction

Roland Psenner, Rafael Pimentel, Patrick Fonti, Chiara Bertolin et al.
Communications Earth & Environment
Tree-ring climate responses
article

Unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters revealed by a six-century snow cover reconstruction

Roland Psenner, Rafael Pimentel, Patrick Fonti, Chiara Bertolin, Claudia Notarnicola, Christian Röhr, Jörg Franke
article en

Abstract

Snow cover shapes climate, ecosystems, water resources, and socio-economic activities, yet its long-term European variability remains poorly known due to short and fragmented observational records. Here, we present a continent-wide, 600-year reconstruction of monthly European snow cover extent at 2° spatial resolution, derived by combining reanalysis data through a machine learning technique. The record reveals an unprecedented seasonal reorganization at monthly scale since around 1850: December–January snow cover extent shrinks by up to 20%, while April–May snow cover extent declines by up to 30%, especially at latitudes higher than 50°N. February and March are comparatively stable. While snow cover exhibits the strongest sensitivity to rising temperatures, reduced precipitation still leaves a noticeable imprint, particularly in the Mediterranean basins and Scandinavia. These changes place recent loss of snow cover in a multi-centennial context and underline the urgent need to assess impacts on sensitive ecosystems, water resources, and socio-economic sectors. Our dataset provides a crucial baseline for adaptation planning and benchmarking climate model simulations. European snow-cover extent has undergone an unprecedented seasonal reorganization since around 1850, with monthly declines of up to 30%, according to a 600-year reconstruction combining reanalysis data and machine learning method.

Communications Earth & Environment
University of Bern (CH), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH), Eurac Research (IT), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH), University of Córdoba (ES)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Tree-ring climate responses
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