Assessing avoided carbon impacts: introducing the potential avoidance of carbon emissions through research (PACER) framework

Net zero carbon priorities drive a substantial portfolio of research initiatives. As such interest into the ability to assess impact if research outputs were to be implemented at scale is growing. Namely, the potential future avoidance of carbon emissions. This is of interest both to justify net zero research efforts and provide confidence to investors and implementers of the scale of impact. However, current carbon calculation tools do not extend into potential future avoidance. Furthermore, emerging terms and definitions are open to misinterpretation and subsequent legitimacy concerns. This study critically analyses current developments in carbon emission assessments for avoided emissions within research and innovation projects, proposes alternative terminology to overcome legitimacy concerns and introduces the Potential Avoidance of Carbon Emissions through Research (PACER) assessment framework to address this research gap. The PACER framework has been developed through a funded researcher development programme thematically linked to achieving reduced greenhouse gas emissions and reaching net zero carbon targets: the Centre for Post-doctoral Development in Infrastructure Cities and Energy (C-DICE). Case studies used in the development of the project demonstrate the ability of the framework to assess potentially avoided carbon across project development timelines and the potential insights that can be gained.