CDN-213: The Holdout Residual

CDN-213 audits the strict leave-one-out residual gate after CDN-212. The public Agol et al. 2024 source bundle contains the manuscript source, bibliography, 7534-row full-fit forecast CSV, and figure PNG. The manuscript describes a drop-one procedure and reports uncertainty inflation by 3.14, but the dropped-transit forecasts, per-transit leave-one-out residuals, and reproduction notebook/code are not packaged. Full-fit residuals remain diagnostic only: max residual 50.530 s, max published |z| 1.302, diagnostic de-inflated max |z| 2.731. TTY candidate promotion remains blocked.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-06-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20679203
Primary Topic
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

CDN-213: The Holdout Residual

Nicky Joseph Hubertus Catharina Hacquier
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
article

CDN-213: The Holdout Residual

Nicky Joseph Hubertus Catharina Hacquier
article en

Abstract

CDN-213 audits the strict leave-one-out residual gate after CDN-212. The public Agol et al. 2024 source bundle contains the manuscript source, bibliography, 7534-row full-fit forecast CSV, and figure PNG. The manuscript describes a drop-one procedure and reports uncertainty inflation by 3.14, but the dropped-transit forecasts, per-transit leave-one-out residuals, and reproduction notebook/code are not packaged. Full-fit residuals remain diagnostic only: max residual 50.530 s, max published |z| 1.302, diagnostic de-inflated max |z| 2.731. TTY candidate promotion remains blocked.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Dynamique du noyau (FR)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
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