Simulation-Based Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Ethanol as an Alternative Fuel for Marine Energy Systems

The maritime sector accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and faces binding decarbonization obligations under the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework and the FuelEU Maritime Regulation. Conventional marine fuels, including very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG), are insufficient to meet long-term regulatory intensity targets on a well-to-wake (WtW) lifecycle basis, creating an urgent need for credible fuel alternatives. This study investigates ethanol as a primary fuel for marine dual-fuel propulsion systems, assessed across four distinct production pathways, sugar beet, corn, sugarcane, and wheat straw, to determine its full decarbonization potential relative to VLSFO and LNG benchmarks. A simulation-based multi-dimensional evaluation framework is developed and applied, integrating dynamic operational simulation, energy analysis, environmental lifecycle modelling, and regulatory compliance assessment. The framework is calibrated against a high-resolution dataset from an active container ship, with scenario-specific engine data. While ethanol requires 39.1% more fuel mass than VLSFO due to its lower energy density, all four ethanol pathways deliver substantially superior WtW GHG reductions: from 50.2% (corn) to 76.9% (wheat straw), compared with 20.6% for LNG. All ethanol scenarios satisfy FuelEU compliance limits across the 2026–2045 horizon, with wheat straw ethanol achieving a GFI of 22.52 gCO2e/MJ, compliant marginally with the 2040 IMO target. These findings demonstrate that bio-based ethanol, particularly from lignocellulosic feedstocks, is a technically viable and regulatorily superior alternative to LNG for maritime decarbonization, warranting accelerated research into production scale-up and bunkering infrastructure development.