Experimental Data-Driven Hybrid PSO-ELM Model for Accurate Prediction of Hydraulic Turbine Parameters

This study proposes an experimental data-driven hybrid prediction framework for hydraulic turbine performance using a Particle Swarm Optimization-enhanced Extreme Learning Machine (PSO-ELM). The performance of three hydraulic turbines, namely Pelton, Kaplan, and Francis turbines, was experimentally investigated under different jet-opening and guide-vane conditions. The experimental results showed that the Pelton turbine (PT) achieved its highest efficiency at low jet opening, whereas the Kaplan and Francis turbines performed better at higher guide-vane openings. The measured data includes 36 tests, which were then used to evolve and evaluate hybrid ML models for predicting hydraulic power and efficiency. Jet-opening or guide-vane position (25%, 50%, 75% and 100%) and rotational speed were used as input variables, while brake power and efficiency were used as output variables. The proposed PSO-ELM model was compared with other optimized ELM models, including Genetic Algorithms Extreme Learning Machine (GA-ELM), Differential Evolution Extreme Learning Machine (DE-ELM), and Whale Optimization Algorithm Extreme Learning Machine (WOA-ELM), as well as Particle Swarm Optimization–Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (PSO-ANFIS) and Particle Swarm Optimization–Multi-Layer Perceptron (PSO-MLP) models. The suggested method presents a hopeful structure for tackling the difficulties linked to performance evaluation, thus enabling a more dependable and effective use of energy resources. The main findings validate that a PSO-based structure reaching an R2 value of 0.997 is more efficient in predictive tool performance optimization for hydropower systems.