The road leads to prosperity: how the Belt and Road Initiative powers high-quality urban economic growth

Against the backdrop of China’s new economic development goals, by integrating data from Chinese prefecture-level cities and listed companies, we define and quantify the urban economic growth momentum (EGM) levels of 285 cities from 2009 to 2021, assessing the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on urban EGM. The results show that, first, the BRI significantly improves the EGM of node cities, thus fostering high-quality urban economic development. Second, mechanism analysis reveals that the policy effects stem from the cities’ upgraded industrial structures, expanded market scale and improved innovation capacity. Third, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy impact is more significant in cities with greater importance within trade networks and higher digital finance development levels. Moreover, the BRI exhibits a pronounced Matthew effect, exerting a greater positive impact on the EGM of economically larger and central cities. Finally, the BRI exhibits a pronounced spatial spillover effect, significantly boosting the EGM of cities adjacent to node cities. This study offers new pathway options for regions pursuing high-quality economic growth.