Screening Potential Atrazine Leaching Using an Analytical Model Under Contrasting Hydroclimatic Conditions

This study adapted and applied a spatially distributed analytical model to estimate the annual representative leached fraction and the annual potential leached mass of atrazine in the Cauquenes catchment in Chile under contrasting Mediterranean hydroclimatic conditions. The model was based on van der Zee and Boesten and Rakonjac et al. and was modified to account for the strong seasonality of precipitation and evapotranspiration by using representative daily hydrological conditions derived from monthly averages. Spatially distributed soil, climate, land-cover, and atrazine application data were integrated at the pixel scale, including locally corrected soil organic carbon, hydraulic properties, precipitation, evapotranspiration, leaf area index, and annual atrazine dose. The model was applied to two contrasting years, 2018 and 2023, and outputs were aggregated at the pixel, land-cover, hotspot, and catchment scales. The results showed a marked hydroclimatic control on potential atrazine leaching. In the drier year, 2018, both the annual representative leached fraction and the annual potential leached mass were generally very low across the catchment, whereas in the wetter year, 2023, moderate-to-high leaching values became much more spatially extensive, and hotspot areas expanded substantially. At the catchment scale, potential leached mass increased from 0.088 kg in 2018 to 179.784 kg in 2023, while the percentage of applied mass potentially leached increased from 5.50 × 10−5% to 0.112%. Land-cover classes influenced the results both through the spatial allocation of atrazine application and through LAI-dependent partitioning of evapotranspiration. Global sensitivity analysis using the Morris method identified KOC and DT50 as the dominant controls on annual potential leached mass, and spatial uncertainty propagation was performed. Overall, the proposed framework provides a potential annual screening estimate and may serve as a preliminary screening tool to prioritize areas for targeted monitoring and future model benchmarking in Chile.