Energy Resilience and Sustainability Under War: Attacks on Ukraine’s Critical Infrastructure and Spillover Risks for Europe

This study investigates the cross-border consequences of large-scale military attacks on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure and their implications for European energy resilience. Unlike prior research focused primarily on national-level disruption, this paper conceptualizes wartime infrastructure destruction as a source of systemic spillover risk within interconnected electricity systems. We develop an analytical framework integrating three dimensions: shock probability, structural vulnerability, and recovery capacity. Using evidence from 2022–2026 and comparative assessment of selected European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) countries, we identify substantial asymmetries in exposure and resilience. Moldova appears highly vulnerable due to structural dependence and limited flexibility, whereas Poland demonstrates stronger resilience supported by diversification and institutional capacity. The findings show that shocks originating in Ukraine propagate through electricity trade flows, balancing constraints, and price volatility. The results highlight that large-scale attacks on the energy system threaten not only immediate regional security but also the long-term energy sustainability of the interconnected European network. The paper contributes to the literature by linking war-induced infrastructure damage with sustainable energy governance and by proposing resilience tools such as digital twins and blockchain coordination. The results are relevant for policymakers, transmission operators, and crisis management institutions across Europe.