Trends and future projections of Hodgkin and Non-Hodgkin lymphoma burden in Chinese children and adolescents (1990–2043): insights from the GBD 2023 database

To analyze the spatiotemporal trends and predict the future burden of Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma among children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2023, using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 database. Data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years for Hodgkin Lymphoma and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 dataset. The analysis targeted children and adolescents aged under 19 years, stratified by sex and age groups: under 5 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and 15-19 years. The average annual percentage change and its 95% uncertainty interva were calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis to evaluate trends. Additionally, time-series modeling and forecasting were performed using the autoregressive integrated moving average model to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALY rate. The incidence and mortality rates of Hodgkin Lymphoma decreased significantly from 1990 to 2023, with age-standardized incidence rate declining from 0.650 per 100,000 to 0.322 per 100,000 (95% UI: -2.237 to -1.780) and age-standardized mortality rate from 0.531 per 100,000 to 0.107 per 100,000 (95% UI: -4.914 to -4.448). However, the prevalence of Hodgkin Lymphoma increased, reflecting improved survival rates. Higher burden was observed in males, particularly in the 15-19 age group. The incidence and prevalence of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma increased significantly, with age-standardized incidence rate rising from 3.896 per 100,000 to 5.174 per 100,000 (95% UI: 0.615 to 1.390) and age-standardized prevalence rate from 12.476 per 100,000 to 34.793 per 100,000 (95% UI: 3.009 to 3.395). Mortality and DALY rates declined, but the absolute number of deaths increased due to population growth. Higher burden was observed in males across all age groups. Time series modeling using the autoregressive integrated moving average model predicts that over the next two decades, the incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of Hodgkin Lymphoma and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma will continue to decline. This study highlights the distinct epidemiological patterns of Hodgkin Lymphoma and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma among children and adolescents in China. While the incidence and mortality rates of Hodgkin Lymphoma decreased significantly from 1990 to 2023, Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma exhibited an increasing incidence, though its mortality rate also declined over the same period. The results offer valuable insights for policymaking and the development of health service delivery strategies aimed at optimizing acute therapeutic access for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma and long-term survivorship care for Hodgkin Lymphoma in pediatric lymphoma patients.