Energy Transition and Climate Vulnerability in India: Evidence from the EKC Hypothesis with Renewable Energy, Inequality, Globalization, and Technology

This study aims to examine the key factors determining climate vulnerability in India's energy transition process, within the framework of its goal to achieve net zero emissions by 2070. In this context, the effects of renewable energy use, income inequality, economic growth, globalization, and technological progress on India's climate vulnerability are analyzed. Annual data specific to India for the period 1995-2023 are used in the study. To account for nonlinear relationships and potential structural breaks, fractional frequency Fourier ADF unit root tests, a fractional frequency Fourier ARDL model, and the Fourier bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality approach were applied in the empirical analysis. Furthermore, FMOLS and CCR estimators with Fourier functions were used to test the robustness of the findings. The empirical findings yield consistent results in both the short and long term. The results show an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and climate vulnerability, and thus the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid in the case of India. Furthermore, it has been found that the use of renewable energy and technological progress reduce climate vulnerability, while globalization increases it. The impact of income inequality appears to manifest not directly, but rather through structural channels such as growth dynamics and institutional capacity. These findings indicate that for India to achieve its net-zero target, its energy transition policies should not focus solely on emission reduction, but should also be supported by holistic policy designs that strengthen climate resilience and promote social inclusion.