Does the number of property crimes increase during recession periods? An analysis of crime and unemployment rates in Buffalo from 2006 to 2023

This study examines the synchronization between unemployment and property crime cycles—burglary, robbery, larceny, and motor vehicle theft—in Buffalo from 2006 to 2023. Using Markov switching models and the Concordance Index, we test the hypothesis that unemployment is positively related to burglary, robbery, and larceny, but negatively related to motor vehicle theft. Results show a positive but insignificant link between unemployment and burglary, robbery, and larceny cycles, while motor vehicle theft cycles are significantly negatively correlated with unemployment. Rising unemployment significantly predicts increases in burglary and larceny, and decreases in motor vehicle theft.