Balancing bias, baryons, and scale cuts in LSST 3x2pt analysis

Stage IV surveys such as LSST will probe deeply into the nonlinear regime, where systematic effects from galaxy bias and baryonic feedback become dominant and poorly constrained nuisance parameters can lead to degeneracies. In this work we present a 3 × 2 pt analysis for LSST Y1 and Y10 data using the ~emulator for modelling both the hybrid-effective field theory (HEFT) for nonlinear galaxy bias and the baryonic feedback using the baryonification mechanism. We aim to find a balance between model complexity and scale cuts, with particular attention to parameter degeneracies and baryonic feedback effects on the galaxy–matter and galaxy–galaxy power spectra. First, we find that a linear bias model delivers percent-level, unbiased constraints on and σ 8 only up to k m a x = 0.1 h / Mpc, but pushing to smaller scales requires a perturbative approach. Second, we compare HEFT with a minimal bias variant with fixed higher-order terms, and find that the latter is unbiased in Λ CDM even at k m a x = 0.7 h / Mpc. We show that higher-order bias can mimic baryonic suppression, but baryons cannot reproduce the full range of higher-order bias behaviour within the parameter range allowed by the ~baryonification model. Third, we find that a detection of the total neutrino mass M ν is possible for both Y1 and Y10 for k ≥ 0.5 h / Mpc, at least when photo- z uncertainties and related nuisance parameters are precisely known. However, the specific measured value is not robust across equally plausible mock scenarios: the inferred M ν can be significantly biased by adopting the minimal bias model. The entire analysis is conducted with a new independent, open source pipeline MGL that we present for the first time in this work.