Strategic Anti-Transgender Policy Diffusion: Interest Groups, Courts, and the Two-Track Politics of Gender Regulation

This thesis analyzes the strategic diffusion of anti-transgender policy in the United States following the passage of Idaho House Bills 500 and 509 in 2020. It argues that conservative lawmakers and advocacy organizations employed a coordinated "two-track" policy strategy in which transgender sports bans served as highly visible and politically popular mode legislation while identity-document restrictions advanced more quietly through courts and administrative policy. Drawing on policy diffusion theory, the Advocacy Coalition framework, and minority stress theory, the study combines qualitative policy analysis with quantitative analysis of Household Pulse Survey mental health data and Media Cloud new coverage data from 2021-2024. The findings show no statistically significant divergence in PHQ-4 mental health scores between transgender respondents in restrictive states and the national transgender population, though a large and persistent mental health disparity between Trans/NB and cisgender respondents remains evident throughout the study period. This thesis concludes that the anti-transgender legislative wave operated as a coordinated national strategy whose political influence extended beyond the states in which policies were formally enacted.